Mortality

Every year across the globe, there are an estimated 1 billion cases of which 3 to 5 million are severe cases resulting in 290,000 to 650,000 influenza-related respiratory deaths.

[T]he overall clinical consequences of Covid‑19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%).

In a March article for Stat News, Dr. Ioannidis argued that Covid‑19 is far less deadly than modelers were assuming. He considered the experience of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined Feb. 4 in Japan. Nine of 700 infected passengers and crew died. Based on the demographics of the ship’s population, Dr. Ioannidis estimated that the U.S. fatality rate could be as low as 0.025% to 0.625% and put the upper bound at 0.05% to 1%—comparable to that of seasonal flu.

For 6% of the deaths, COVID‑19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID‑19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.

0-19 years:  0.00003 [0.003%]
20-49 years: 0.0002  [0.02%]
50-69 years: 0.005   [0.5%]
70+ years:   0.054   [5.4%]

Our current best estimates tell us that about ten percent of the global population may have been infected by this virus.

The global population as of 2020: 7,794,799,000

10% of 7,794,799,000 = 779,479,900

Estimated number of deaths at time of above prediction: 1,030,160

WHO's Estimated mortality: 1,030,160/779,479,900 = 0.13%